基于日降水量的江西省极端降水变化研究   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

章毅之 《气象与减灾研究》2007,30(4):33-36

利用STARDEX研究计划提出的PQ90、PX5D、PINT、PFL90、PNL90等5项主要极端降水指数,对江西省83个气象台站1961—2005年逐日降水量资料进行计算,并据此分析了45 a来江西省逐日极端降水强度和发生频率的变化情况。分析结果表明,江西省大多数台站逐日极端降水指数的年变化均呈上升趋势,且部分通过了信度为0.05的显著性检验;从指数的年代际变化看,所有指数在20世纪60—80年代变化不是很明显,但在90年代变化明显增大。总的来说,江西省逐日极端降水强度、极端降水临界值、极端降水的发生频率均呈增大趋势。  相似文献   

近40年中国平均气候与极值气候变化的概述   总被引：47，自引：0，他引：47  

钱维宏  符娇兰  张玮玮  林祥 《地球科学进展》2007,22(7):673-684

随着中国气象局对近50年来逐日气象观测资料的释放,人们从不同的角度对中国平均气候和极端气候的分布特征有了更多的了解.从目前研究的结果来看,这些认识需要有一个集成,即需要有一个总体的归纳和解释.通过中国近40年来的温度极值和降水极值事件的分析认识到全球增暖和区域环流异常决定着气候极值事件的分布格局.与全球增暖相联系的是:我国微量降水在空间上表现为一致的减少趋势,我国北方寒潮事件显著减少,冷夜和冷日的减少与暖夜和暖日的增多并存,以及极端强降水有增多的趋势.与东亚季风气流和西风带气流异常对应的我国有效降水在区域分布上发生了显著变化,东部季风区中的"北涝南旱"从1970年代末转型为"南涝北旱",与华南的偏干一起形成了东部季风区降水从华南、长江到华北的"-、 、-"异常分布型,但华南在1991年出现了转湿的突变;东北和西北先后从1983年和1987年前后转为暖湿气候.极端温度和极端降水趋势的空间分布与平均温度和平均降水趋势的空间分布一致.  相似文献   

Climate Risks and Their Impact on Agriculture and Forests in Switzerland   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：4  

J. Fuhrer  M. Beniston  A. Fischlin  Ch. Frei  S. Goyette  K. Jasper  Ch. Pfister 《Climatic change》2006,79(1-2):79-102

There is growing evidence that, as a result of global climate change, some of the most severe weather events could become more frequent in Europe over the next 50 to 100 years. The paper aims to (i) describe observed trends and scenarios for summer heat waves, windstorms and heavy precipitation, based on results from simulations with global circulation models, regional climate models, and other downscaling procedures, and (ii) discuss potential impacts on agricultural systems and forests in Switzerland. Trends and scenarios project more frequent heavy precipitation during winter corresponding, for example, to a three-fold increase in the exceedance of today's 15-year extreme values by the end of the 21st century. This increases the risk of large-scale flooding and loss of topsoil due to erosion. In contrast, constraints in agricultural practice due to waterlogged soils may become less in a warmer climate. In summer, the most remarkable trend is a decrease in the frequency of wet days, and shorter return times of heat waves and droughts. This increases the risk of losses of crop yield and forage quality. In forests, the more frequent occurrence of dry years may accelerate the replacement of sensitive tree species and reduce carbon stocks, and the projected slight increase in the frequency of extreme storms by the end of the century could increase the risk of windthrow. Some possible measures to maintain goods and services of agricultural and forest ecosystems are mentioned, but it is suggested that more frequent extremes may have more severe consequences than progressive changes in means. In order to effectively decrease the risk for social and economic impacts, long-term adaptive strategies in agriculture and silviculture, investments for prevention, and new insurance concepts seem necessary.  相似文献   

Linear combinations of order statistics to estimate the quantiles of generalized pareto and extreme values distributions   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

G. Salvadori 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2003,17(1-2):116-140

 Ad hoc techniques for estimating the quantiles of the Generalized Pareto (GP) and the Generalized Extreme Values (GEV) distributions are introduced. The estimators proposed are based on new estimators of the position and the scale parameters recently introduced in the Literature. They provide valuable estimates of the quantiles of interest both when the shape parameter is known and when it is unknown (this latter case being of great relevance in practical applications). In addition, weakly-consistent estimators are introduced, whose calculation does not require the knowledge of any parameter. The procedures are tested on simulated data, and comparisons with other techniques are shown. The research was partially supported by Contract n. ENV4-CT97-0529 within the project “FRAMEWORK” of the European Community – D.G. XII. Grants by “Progetto Giovani Ricercatori” are also acknowledged.  相似文献   

Learning styles among geography undergraduates: an international comparison   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

Mick Healey  Pauline Kneale  John Bradbeer  with other members of the INLT Learning Styles  Concepts Group 《Area》2005,37(1):30-42

Growing diversity is focusing attention on the range of different student learning styles. This study assesses whether geographers have a predominant learning style and whether this varies between and within countries. The findings are based on over 900 geography students from 12 universities in Australia, New Zealand, the UK and the US, who completed Kolb's Learning Style Inventory (LSI). The implications for curriculum design and student learning strategies are discussed. It is suggested that departments should aim to produce balanced learners with a full range of learning capacities rather than simply matching teaching to existing learning styles.  相似文献   

浅源极远震的震相特征与识别方法     

刘家愚  张义梅 《华南地震》1998,18(4):69-73

介绍了纵波在地球内部的传播过程和浅源极远震的震相特点。由不同震中距的地震反映在三分向地震记录图上的初至震相振幅比的差异,归纳出由地震初动判别地震类型的方法,结合实际工作经验,得出如何判别ＰＫＳ震相、如何由ＰＰ推Ｓ、由ＳＳ反推ＰＰ震相,以及根据地震面波的到时,通过《Ｒｍ－Ｐ》表来验证震中距等几种识别极远震及其震相的方法。  相似文献   

处理非线性分类和回归问题的一种新方法（Ⅰ）——支持向量机方法简介   总被引：51，自引：3，他引：51       下载免费PDF全文

陈永义俞小鼎  高学浩冯汉中 《应用气象学报》2004,15(3):345-354

简要介绍了近年来倍受瞩目的一种处理高度非线性分类、回归等问题的计算机学习的新方法——支持向量机(SVM)方法；分析了这一方法的特点及其在数值预报产品释用及气象研究业务中的应用前景。SVM是一种有坚实理论基础的新颖的小样本学习方法。它基本上不涉及概率测度及大数定律等，因此不同于现有的统计方法。从本质上看，它避开了从归纳到演绎的传统过程，实现了高效的从训练样本到预报样本的“转导推理”(transductive inference)，大大简化了通常的分类和回归等问题。SVM的最终决策函数只由少数的支持向量所确定，计算的复杂性取决于支持向量的数目，而不是样本空间的维数，这在某种意义上避免了“维数灾”。  相似文献   

A note on the statistics of the largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle     

A.R. Solow  A.R. Beet 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2004,66(18):1731

This note points out a problem with the way in which extreme value distributions have been fit to the intensities of the largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle. An alternative method is described. This method is applied to observations of the three largest geomagnetic storms in solar cycles 11–22.  相似文献   

江苏省月平均最高、最低气温周期振动的谱特征   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

何卷雄  姜爱军等 《气象科学》2002,22(2):159-166

本文综合运用奇异交叉谱分析等多种气候诊断方法研究江苏月平均最高、最低气温振动的准周期变化的时空分布特征。结果发现：江苏逐月最高、最低气温分布型态分别为经向型、纬向型；两者存在2至3年周期，显著耦合周期为3．5年及16．5年。本文同时讨论了奇异交叉谱分析、小波分析、最大熵谱分析、经典交叉谱分析的优缺点。  相似文献   

A proposed mechanism for storm beach sedimentation     

Julian D. Orford 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1977,2(4):381-400

One of the major problems of shingle beach dynamics is the method by which coarse gravel is transferred from beach face to storm beach, the latter often lying several metres above high spring tidal levels. The mechanism which is usually proposed, cites the action of plunging breakers as being central to this problem of sediment transfer. However, the nature of net residual fluid force of plunging breakers is deemed unsatisfactory for any substantial upbeach (onshore) sediment transport during storm conditions on gravel beaches. A mechanism is proposed by which high still water levels due to high astronomical tides, onshore storm force winds and allied wave surge, promote shoaling characteristics and beach profile changes which are conducive to spilling breaker development at tidal extremities. It is the net onshore fluid force vector of the spilling breaker overtopping the beach crest which may be the cause of extreme sedimentation events on the storm beach. An example of such sediment transfer is given for a known storm beach sedimentation event at Llanrhystyd gravel beach, West Wales, during February 1974. Process variables were monitored on several days allowing the use of an inshore breaker steepness criterion, to indicate positions in the tidal regime where plunging breakers give way to spilling forms. This example serves to suggest that more attention should be given to the nature and characteristics of shoaling waves, especially in respect of breaker type, when examining problems of shingle beach dynamics and sedimentation.  相似文献